Chris Gross Co-Authors Variance Journal Paper

Validation of minimum bias rate factors

Released in the December, 2018 issue of Variance Journal, Christopher Gross and Jonathan Evans co-authored a paper entitled Minimum Bias, Generalized Linear Models, and Credibility in the Context of Predictive Modeling.

Abstract: When predictive performance testing, rather than testing model assumptions, is used for validation, the need for detailed model specification is greatly reduced. Minimum bias models trade some degree of statistical independence in data points in exchange for statistically much more tame distributions underlying individual data points. A combination of multiplicative minimum bias and credibility methods for predictively modeling losses (pure premiums, claim counts, average severity, etc.) based on explanatory risk characteristics is defined. Advantages of this model include grounding in long-standing and conceptually lucid methods with minimal assumptions. An empirical case study is presented with comparisons between multiplicative minimum bias and a typical generalized linear model (GLM). Comparison is also made with methods of incorporating credibility into a GLM.

Download the full study directly from Variance Journal here.

Karen Landrum Joins Gross Consulting

Gross Consulting is excited to announce the addition of our newest Senior Consultant, Karen Landrum.

Karen brings to Gross Consulting a broad set of unique skills and experience.  In addition to direct insurance industry experience while employed with Kemper, Karen also brings an impressive range of expertise in consulting.  While employed with Merlinos & Associates for 8 years, Karen developed and managed an actuarial practice that included both traditional pricing, reserving, and opinion work, as well as more specialized consulting in:

  • new product development
  • experience in emerging markets, such as insuretechs and cannabis products
  • startup/de novo company consulting and rate filings
  • regulatory filing reviews and market conduct exams
  • predictive analytics consulting and development of filing support for predictive models
  • client training on actuarial and predictive analytic methods

Karen is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and holds the Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics designation from the CAS Institute.

To learn more about Karen’s experience and how she can help your company to succeed click here.

Bret Shroyer Joins Gross Consulting

Gross Consulting welcomes Bret Shroyer as our newest employee! Bret’s experience over more than two decades, and across a wide range of analytical, actuarial, and strategic roles in the insurance and reinsurance markets make him a perfect addition to the company. Bret’s background includes time with Valen Analytics, Willis Re, and Travelers.

 

To learn more about Bret’s background and how he can help your company to succeed click here.