Chris Gross Co-Authors Variance Journal Paper

Validation of minimum bias rate factors

Released in the December, 2018 issue of Variance Journal, Christopher Gross and Jonathan Evans co-authored a paper entitled Minimum Bias, Generalized Linear Models, and Credibility in the Context of Predictive Modeling.

Abstract: When predictive performance testing, rather than testing model assumptions, is used for validation, the need for detailed model specification is greatly reduced. Minimum bias models trade some degree of statistical independence in data points in exchange for statistically much more tame distributions underlying individual data points. A combination of multiplicative minimum bias and credibility methods for predictively modeling losses (pure premiums, claim counts, average severity, etc.) based on explanatory risk characteristics is defined. Advantages of this model include grounding in long-standing and conceptually lucid methods with minimal assumptions. An empirical case study is presented with comparisons between multiplicative minimum bias and a typical generalized linear model (GLM). Comparison is also made with methods of incorporating credibility into a GLM.

Download the full study directly from Variance Journal here.

Steve Lacke Joins Gross Consulting

Gross Consulting is excited to announce the addition of our newest Senior Consultant, Steve Lacke.

Mr. Lacke has over 28 years of experience as an actuary and insurance executive, particularly in the professional liability area of practice (Medical Professional, E&O, D&O, and EPL.) Most recently, Steve founded Birchwood Consulting, leveraging his considerable medical professional liability expertise to bring creative actuarial consulting solutions to carriers in this space.

Steve spent eight years with Constellation, the parent company of three medical professional liability insurers, where he held multiple leadership positions, including Chief Actuary, CFO and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to this, Steve recorded a decade of service at Travelers/St. Paul Companies in actuarial roles including pricing, reserving, reinsurance, and strategy.

In his spare time, Mr. Lacke is the Chairman of the Board at True Friends Foundation, a nonprofit providing life-changing experiences that enhance independence and self-esteem for over 5,000 children and adults with disabilities annually.

Steve is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS) and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries (MAAA). He also holds an MBA from the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota.

To learn more about Steve’s experience and how he can help your company to succeed click here.

Karen Landrum Joins Gross Consulting

Gross Consulting is excited to announce the addition of our newest Senior Consultant, Karen Landrum.

Karen brings to Gross Consulting a broad set of unique skills and experience.  In addition to direct insurance industry experience while employed with Kemper, Karen also brings an impressive range of expertise in consulting.  While employed with Merlinos & Associates for 8 years, Karen developed and managed an actuarial practice that included both traditional pricing, reserving, and opinion work, as well as more specialized consulting in:

  • new product development
  • experience in emerging markets, such as insuretechs and cannabis products
  • startup/de novo company consulting and rate filings
  • regulatory filing reviews and market conduct exams
  • predictive analytics consulting and development of filing support for predictive models
  • client training on actuarial and predictive analytic methods

Karen is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, and holds the Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics designation from the CAS Institute.

To learn more about Karen’s experience and how she can help your company to succeed click here.

Bret Shroyer Joins Gross Consulting

Gross Consulting welcomes Bret Shroyer as our newest employee! Bret’s experience over more than two decades, and across a wide range of analytical, actuarial, and strategic roles in the insurance and reinsurance markets make him a perfect addition to the company. Bret’s background includes time with Valen Analytics, Willis Re, and Travelers.

 

To learn more about Bret’s background and how he can help your company to succeed click here.